Securities Star New Energy Vehicle Industry Weekly: According to Shanghai Nonferrous Metals, as of February 2, the battery-grade lithium carbonate was 94,300-99,800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 97,100 yuan/ton, which was the same as the previous working day; Industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 88,000-91,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 89,500 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous working day. Although the inquiry activity in the market is still active, the current downstream manufacturers’ long-term cooperation is coming to an end, and the logistics price increase before the holiday is obvious. The transaction near the Spring Festival is light and the actual transaction volume is small. Today, the market situation is relatively calm. The prices of electric carbon and industrial carbon did not fluctuate because of light trading.
Institutional point of view:
Orient securities predicts that under the fierce price competition, the head new energy vehicle enterprises will continue to expand their market share by virtue of their leading position in new energy technology and industrial chain, and the vehicle and parts companies with strong competitiveness in new energy vehicles deserve attention. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to Tesla industrial chain and parts companies that build factories overseas. Huawei industrial chain, Xiaomi industrial chain, heavy truck industrial chain and parts companies with relevant layouts in the fields of intelligent driving, robotics and data center liquid cooling are also suggested to continue to pay attention. Suggested attention: Xinquan, Bojun Technology, Yin Lun, Daimei, Ruihu Mould, Aikedi, Top Group, Baolong Technology, Xusheng Group, Sanhua Zhikong, Shangsheng Electronics, Huayu Automobile, Best, Bethel, Precision Forging Technology, Desai Siwei, Huayang Group, Double Ring Transmission, Jifeng, Shanghai Yanpu.
Huachuang Securities pointed out that on the whole, the supply in Europe and the United States has gradually recovered, but high interest rates still restrain the demand for car purchases. We expect the growth momentum of overseas sales to continue in 2024, but the growth rate will slow down. It is preliminarily estimated that in 2024, the overseas sales volume was 50.34 million vehicles, up +2.9% year-on-year, and the global sales volume was 80.13 million vehicles, up +3.8% year-on-year. 4Q overseas automobile sales increased by nearly double digits year-on-year, reflecting the economic recovery, with a slight increase from the previous month in line with seasonality. It is estimated that the sales growth rate in China, North America and Europe will be +5%, +4% and +2% in 2024. China’s automobile exports will still maintain a high prosperity, and the global market growth momentum will continue but the growth rate will slow down. Short-term export-oriented parts enterprises in China still have the advantages of cost performance and service in their respective segments. The medium and long-term overseas growth logic will bring new growth curves to some companies. Top, Chineydy and Xinquan are recommended for parts. The whole vehicle is recommended to pay attention to the new car situation after the Spring Festival.
Macroscopic events
1. Beijing: Stabilize and expand traditional consumption and foster new consumption.
On February 1, 2024, the list of key tasks of the Beijing Municipal Government Work Report was released. It is mentioned that great efforts should be made to stimulate potential consumption. Stabilize and expand traditional consumption, boost mass consumption of new energy vehicles and electronic products, promote equipment renewal, actively promote automobile circulation, and vigorously develop green consumption and healthy consumption. Do a good job in the introduction of the first store and strengthen the IP promotion of local brands. Actively cultivate new consumption growth points such as "trendy products" of domestic products, encourage time-honored enterprises to innovate business models, and introduce a number of international consumer brands. Improve the quality of life service industry. Cultivate and expand new consumption and promote new scenes of digital consumption. Cultivate and build smart stores, smart blocks and smart business districts. Promote the recovery and development of online consumption, and enhance the leading role of live e-commerce format in online consumption. Vigorously develop the new mode of "bonded+consumption".
2. Beijing released 1.2 trillion yuan list of key projects.
Recently, Beijing released "Three 100" municipal key projects, including major scientific and technological innovation and modern industrial projects, major infrastructure projects and major livelihood improvement projects, with a total of 120 new projects and 180 continued projects, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan. The key projects released this time include 100 scientific and technological innovation and modern industrial projects, such as major scientific and technological facilities platform cluster projects in Huairou Science City to build a comprehensive national science center, as well as advanced manufacturing projects such as new energy automobile industry cluster and medical and health industry. In addition, it also includes projects in the fields of financial industry, service industry opening up, digital economy, scientific and technological innovation, space resources and cultural tourism.
3. General Administration of Market Supervision: In 2024, national supervision and spot checks will be carried out on drones and tram charging piles.
In 2024, the General Administration of Market Supervision will strengthen the investigation and management of quality and safety hazards of key industrial products, improve the quality and safety responsibility system of industrial products, promote quality and technical assistance, and improve the digital level of quality and safety supervision. The 2024 spot check plan will be formulated and implemented, and national supervision and spot checks will be carried out on products such as drones, electric vehicle charging piles and electric bicycle helmets; We will continue to carry out the safety protection actions for children’s and students’ supplies and the special rectification actions for urban gas safety in the market supervision system, establish a product quality and safety risk monitoring system that adapts to the new situation, promote quality and safety traceability and quality grading, and strengthen emergency response to quality and safety emergencies.
Industry news
1. Travel Association: From January 1 to 28, the retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.708 million, up 64% year-on-year.
On January 31, the data of the Association showed that the retail sales of passenger cars in the market from January 1 to January 28 was 1.708 million, up 64% year-on-year and down 15% from the same period of last month. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative retail sales have reached 1.708 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 64%. From January 1 to 28, the national passenger car manufacturers wholesale 1.577 million vehicles, up 52% year-on-year, down 28% from the same period of last month; Since the beginning of this year, a total of 1.577 million vehicles have been wholesale, a year-on-year increase of 52%. From January 1 to 28, the national passenger car manufacturers wholesaled 567,000 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 76% and a decrease of 38% compared with the same period of last month; Since the beginning of this year, a total of 567,000 vehicles have been wholesale, a year-on-year increase of 77%; From January 1 to January 28, the new energy vehicle market retailed 596,000 vehicles, up 92% year-on-year, down 24% from the same period of last month. Since this year, the cumulative retail sales have reached 596,000 vehicles, up 92% year-on-year.
2. China Automobile Association: In 2023, the operating income of the automobile manufacturing industry was 10,097.58 billion yuan, an increase of 11.9% year-on-year.
On January 29th, the data of National Bureau of Statistics compiled by China Automobile Industry Association showed that in 2023, the operating income of automobile manufacturing industry was 10,097.58 billion yuan, up by 11.9% year-on-year, accounting for 7.6% of the total operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size. In 2023, the profit of automobile manufacturing industry was 508.63 billion yuan, up 5.9% year-on-year, accounting for 6.6% of the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size.
3. Cui Dongshu: Going to sea will become the next explosion point of the automobile industry in the next 10 years.
On January 28th, Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the Association, issued a document saying that with the breakthrough of the independent automobile industry, China has become the largest single automobile market in the world, and has nurtured a number of high-quality automobile complete vehicle and parts enterprises, which are deepening the domestic market and continuing to promote overseas expansion. By 2023, China has become the largest automobile exporter in the world. When we break through the production and sales scale of 30 million, accounting for 33% of the world’s market sales, we must be ambitious to make China’s automobile production and sales break through 40 million, and further move towards 50 million, and strive to make China’s automobile market share break through 40% and move towards 50%. While the world share of China products in household appliances and other industries is nearly 60%, China car companies need to make more efforts to repair both inside and outside. Going out to sea will become the next explosion point of the automobile industry in the next 10 years.
Company dynamics
1. Chery executives responded: Chery and Huawei are making every effort to promote the delivery of Zhijie S7.
On January 31, in response to the recent public opinion about the intellectual S7, Chery spokesperson Jin Yibo responded today that the online rumors were not true, the cooperation between the two sides was smooth, and the resignation of the executives was not due to the cooperation project. Jin Yibo said that in order to provide users with the best products and services, Chery and Huawei are making every effort to promote the production and delivery of Zhijie S7, have invested more resources, and will continue to deepen cooperation, and continue to bring consumers excellent driving experience and smart travel products with leading intelligence level.
2. Fuda shares: Dongfeng passenger car and Honeycomb Power are customers of the company’s crankshaft products.
Recently, Fuda Co., Ltd. released the Announcement on Pre-increase of 2023 Annual Results, and it is estimated that the net profit will reach 100 million yuan to 120 million yuan, up 52.46% to 82.95% year-on-year. Non-net profit was deducted from RMB 78 million to RMB 98 million, a year-on-year increase of 118.06% to 173.97%. Fuda shares actively expanded traditional products and markets during the reporting period, and focused on the crankshaft business of new energy hybrid vehicles. The company also implemented quality improvement and efficiency improvement actions, strictly controlled costs, achieved the goals of cost reduction and efficiency improvement and management optimization, and successfully achieved performance reversal in 2023.
Analysts pointed out that the performance of Fuda shares in the field of new energy vehicles deserves attention. Its close cooperation with mainstream car companies, its dual layout in the field of new energy hybrid and pure electric vehicles, and the announcement of pre-increase in performance all show that the company has strong competitive advantages and considerable future development potential.
At present, the sales of new energy hybrid crankshaft and blank products of Fuda Co., Ltd. have accounted for more than 20% of its total sales, which has become an important business growth point of Fuda Co., Ltd. In recent years, Fuda has increased its investment in key components of new energy vehicles, especially in the field of engine crankshafts of new energy hybrid vehicles. With its excellent technical strength and strict quality control, the company has also become the core supplier of hybrid crankshafts for many mainstream automobile companies, including traditional automobile companies such as BYD, Geely, Great Wall, SAIC-GM and Dongfeng Passenger Car, as well as emerging new energy automobile company LI.
Fuda shares not only performed well in the hybrid field, but also launched a new offensive in the field of new energy pure electric vehicles. With the smooth production of the new energy electric drive gear project, it has reached cooperation intentions with many well-known automobile and electric drive system integrators at home and abroad, and some products are also in the research and development stage. With the gradual improvement of project production capacity and stable product quality, the new energy gear industry is expected to bring more performance growth to Fuda in 2024. With the continuous expansion of the new energy hybrid vehicle market and the continuous innovation of technology, Fuda shares are expected to show its rare leading position in the industry in the future.
3. The pre-sale price of 700 Hi4-T tank of Great Wall Motor is 468,000 yuan and 508,000 yuan.
On January 30th, the flagship model of tank brand Tank 700 Hi4-T officially opened for pre-sale, and the pre-sale prices of the two models were 468,000 yuan and 508,000 yuan. In terms of power, the tank 700 Hi4-T is equipped with a plug-in hybrid system consisting of a 3.0T V6 engine and a P2 motor, with a comprehensive output of 385 kW and a comprehensive torque of 800 Nm, matching a 9-speed hybrid special gearbox. Tank 700 Hi4-T is equipped with electronic detachable stabilizer bar, which can be separated/connected by electro-hydraulic system, and the left and right wheels can be decoupled/connected quickly. Under extreme off-road conditions, the rebound stroke of 60mm suspension can be increased, thus increasing the contact area between wheels and the ground, and most off-road difficulties can be overcome.
4. BYD: The net profit in 2023 will increase by 74%-86% year-on-year.
On January 29th, BYD announced that its net profit in 2023 is expected to be 29-31 billion yuan, up 74.46%-86.49% year-on-year. In 2023, the new energy vehicle industry continued to maintain a high-speed growth trend, and the company’s new energy vehicle sales reached a record high, further consolidating the leading position of new energy vehicle sales in the world. In terms of mobile phone components and assembly business, thanks to the increase in the business share of large overseas customers, the recovery of Android customers’ demand, the rapid growth of new energy vehicles and new smart products, the capacity utilization rate has been significantly improved, the business structure has been further optimized, the profitability has been significantly improved, and the profit has been greatly increased.
secondary market
Industry performance
Industry valuation
Sales of new energy vehicles
price of raw material
1. Spot price of lithium compounds
Cathode material price
Electrolyte price
