Xinhua News Agency, Moscow/Kiev, May 22nd Hot question and answer: What is the influence geometry of the important town of "changing hands" in Russia and Ukraine?
Xinhua News Agency reporter Liu Kai, Li Dongxu and Chen Chang
On the 21st, the Russian Ministry of Defence announced that it had completely taken control of Aljomovsk (known as Bakhmut in Ukraine), an important town in Donetsk region. The Ukrainian side denied this and said that the Ukrainian army is still fighting in the area.
Analysts pointed out that whether the control of this important town changes hands is of great symbolic significance to Russia and Ukraine, and the fierce competition between the two sides around the area will continue.
What is the current situation?
Russia announced on the 21st that the Wagner organization, a Russian private military entity, with the support of artillery and aviation units of the South Russian Army, has completely taken control of Arcomovsk. Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated the Russian combat troops for the first time, and promised that all outstanding individuals would receive national praise.
However, this statement by the Russian side was denied by Uzbekistan. On 21st, Ukrainian President Zelensky, who was visiting Japan, said when asked by reporters whether Uzbekistan still controlled Bakhmut, "Bakhmut is only in our hearts". The Ukrainian President’s Office later clarified that Zelensky meant that although the city was destroyed, it was not completely lost.
Malyar, deputy defense minister of Ukraine, said on the 22nd that the Ukrainian army still controls part of the infrastructure in the industrial and residential areas in southwest Bakhmut. In addition, the battle between Ukraine and Russia for the "commanding heights" in the southern and northern suburbs of Bakhmut continues, and Russia is replenishing its troops in this direction.
The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces posted on social media on the 22nd that in the past day, Ukraine and Russia were still fighting in the western, northwestern and southwestern suburbs of Bakhmut, and the outer positions of the Ukrainian army were shelled by the Russian side.
Ukrainian analysts pointed out that the fighting in Bakhmut has extended to the periphery of the region, and the Ukrainian army has a dense defense system here. Only by completely winning the peripheral "highland" can it be said that Bakhmut can be truly captured.
Why is it causing concern?
Located in the northern part of Donetsk region, Bakhmut is a transportation hub on the Ukrainian supply line and an important outpost of the Ukrainian army, with high strategic value. Since August 2022, Russia and Ukraine have invested a lot of troops to compete for this place, and the tragic fighting has continued for more than nine months.
For Russia, taking this place has opened the way for Russian troops to attack two important strategic locations of Ukraine in Donbass region — — The gateway to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. According to Russian experts, winning this battle, which takes a long time and is fierce in attack and defense, marks a major victory for Russia on the battlefield and can greatly enhance morale and people’s hearts.
For Ukraine, holding Bakhmut symbolizes the fighting spirit of the Ukrainian army. In the past few months, the Ukrainian army has invested a lot of troops here, aiming at consuming the Russian army. Some analysts pointed out that Uzbekistan’s delay in counterattack was related to its deployment of troops from other fronts into the battlefield of Bakhmut. According to Washington post, due to the pessimistic assessment of the war situation, US intelligence agencies suggested that Uzbekistan withdraw from Bakhmut as early as January this year. However, Uzbekistan still regards it as an important battlefield. When the war situation was unfavorable to Uzbekistan, the west began to dilute the strategic value of Bakhmut.
Malyar believes that Uzbekistan has fully completed the preset military tasks in Bakhmut, including attracting Russian firepower, gaining time for other tasks and eliminating a large number of opposing personnel, which has significantly weakened the offensive potential of Russian troops.
What is the future direction?
Analysts pointed out that the Ukrainian army urgently needs a victory to boost morale. Recently, Uzbekistan has won a large amount of military aid from the United States and the West. The United States has stated that it will provide advanced fighters such as F-16 and train Ukrainian pilots.
Military experts believe that there are two main options for Uzbekistan to attack: one is to recapture Bakhmut. Kovalenko, a Ukrainian military expert, believes that Uzbekistan also controls almost all the commanding heights in the northwest and southwest of Bakhmut. Relying on the geographical advantages, the Ukrainian army can launch an offensive from a commanding height; The second is to attack from other directions. Khodakovski, a representative of the armed forces in Donetsk, believes that Zaporoge and other places may become the targets of the Ukrainian army.
For the Russian side, there are two options in the future in the direction of Arcomovsk: one is to continue to attack Chassovyar and Seversk to the west and north; The second is to clean up the position of Aljomovsk and consolidate the existing achievements. Obukhov, a member of the Russian State Duma and a doctor of political science, believes that the "fall" of Aljomovsk has not affected Ukraine’s strategic reserves and newly-added forces. The Ukrainian army still gathers a large number of troops in its periphery, and it may be the best choice for the Russian army at present to hold its position.
Russian military experts generally believe that the fall of Aljomovsk may prompt Uzbekistan to launch a long-announced counterattack. Russian military expert Su Kongjin said that there is no reason for Ukraine to postpone its counterattack now.
Russia’s weekly "Arguments and Facts" issued a document saying that after the conflict situation between Russia and Ukraine in Arcomovsk is clear, the intensity of the two sides in other battlefields may intensify. Russia’s "Moscow Communist Youth League" also reminded that the end of this battle will become a turning point in the future war, and the Russian army should be fully prepared for the "retaliatory counterattack" carried out by the Ukrainian army. (Participating in reporter: Peng Peigen)