Wen Yi Zhang Tengjun Assistant Research Fellow, American Institute, China Institute of International Studies
US President Biden will visit Europe on the 9th. This is Biden’s first visit since he took office. The itinerary is intensive and focused, covering G7 summit, NATO summit, US-Europe summit and US-Russia summit.
On June 1, US President Biden delivered a speech at a commemorative event in Tulsa. Xinhua News Agency/Reuters
Since Biden’s administration took office, it has placed the alliance policy at the core of its foreign policy, frequently attacking, trying to strengthen strategic competition with China by reactivating and consolidating the alliance system and regain the position of the United States as a "world leader". Biden’s trip to Europe can be called the key battle of Biden’s government’s "alliance diplomacy", and it can also be regarded as a test of the effect of his "anti-China alliance".
The goal of the trip to Europe is clear
Biden wrote an article in the media before his trip, saying that his trip was intended to unite "democratic countries", fulfill the new commitments of the United States to its allies and partners, demonstrate the ability of "democratic countries" to cope with challenges and threats, and "lead the world" with strength. He said that the United States will "focus on ensuring that the 21st century’s trade and technology rules are formulated by democratic countries that implement market economy, not by China or any other country".
Obviously, the important goal of Biden’s trip is China.
Since Biden’s administration came to power, it has fanned gangs, incited a new round of anti-China upsurge, encouraged Japan, Australia and other countries to be tougher on China, and indirectly led to the temporary grounding of China-EU Comprehensive Agreement on Investment.
At first glance, Biden’s government’s "alliance diplomacy" seems to have the effect of multi-echo, which may also give Biden some confidence to continue to speculate on the "China threat" and advocate anti-China alliances.
However, the game of international politics is never as simple as it seems. On the issue of China, the calculations of American allies may not be on the same channel as the United States. Most countries are unwilling to choose sides between China and the United States, and even more unwilling to give up their interests in China in order to cooperate with the US anti-China strategy.
The alliance offensive is threatening.
Over the past four months or so, Biden’s government has made great efforts to win over the core allies of Europe, Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, and spared no effort to seek consensus and cooperation. The Biden administration’s "alliance diplomacy" is mainly reflected in the following four aspects:
First of all, "cloud diplomacy" swears that the United States will return to the alliance system.
During the Trump era, American allies were given a cold shoulder. As soon as Biden took office, he quickly established contact with major allies, from the periphery to Europe and then to the Asia-Pacific region. Within three weeks, he talked with 11 heads of state and NATO Secretary General, eight of whom were allies. The core members of the ruling team, such as the US Secretary of State, the Presidential Assistant for National Security Affairs, and the Minister of National Defense, are not idle, and frequently interact with diplomatic and security officials of allies by telephone.
On February 19th, Biden made his debut in major international occasions, attending the online video conference of G7 leaders and the special meeting of Munich Security Conference, shouting "America is back, and the transatlantic alliance is back".
This is a picture taken in Munich, Germany on February 19th, when US President Biden attended the special online meeting of Munich Security Conference. Xinhua News Agency (Photo courtesy of Munich Security Conference)
Secondly, carefully design the route of the visit, step by step.
In March, senior officials of Biden’s government began to visit China and started strategic communication and consultation with allies. Take Secretary of State Blinken as an example. He first visited Japan and South Korea with Defense Minister Austin, and then visited Europe four times in less than two months, which shows the good intentions of Biden’s government to win over European allies. At the end of May, Blinken went to many countries in the Middle East to try to mediate the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, but he always sided with Israel, a die-hard ally.
Third, stop quitting the group and try to revive American leadership.
Immediately after Biden took office, he broke with Trump’s practice, announced his return to the Paris Agreement, stopped withdrawing from WHO, reconfirmed his security commitment to his allies, and deliberately downplayed the differences with his allies, suspended tariff war in Europe, and gave up the sanctions against European allies on the "Beixi -2" project.
Fourth, step up the construction of a small circle of strategic competition with China.
Biden’s administration tied the strengthening of the alliance system with its China policy, and believed that the most effective way to deal with the so-called "China challenge" was to establish a "united front" with China, including allies and partners.
On the one hand, under the slogan that the world is at the so-called crossroads of democracy and autocracy, Biden’s government tried to form a so-called global alliance of democratic countries and incited its allies to take a unified stand and take actions against China on human rights and other issues. On the other hand, in the fields of economy, trade, science and technology, military security, etc., Biden’s government tried to form various small circles to put pressure on China, such as strengthening the "Quad(Quadrilateral Security Dialogue)" mechanism and the five-eye alliance, so as to maximize competition with China.
Alliance strategy is strong outside and hollow inside.
During the Trump era, the United States went further and further on the road of isolation of conservatism and unilateralism. Biden took "America is back" as his motto as soon as he took office. However, can the United States still come back?
On March 16th, in Tokyo, Japan, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken (second from the right) and Defense Minister lloyd austin (first from the left), Japanese Foreign Minister Motegi Toshimitsu (second from the left) and Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi touched elbows after the joint press conference. Xinhua News Agency (photo by Ichigo Noki)
First of all, the premise of "America is back" is that the United States can provide public goods and tangible support to its allies as always, otherwise everything will only be empty talk.
Biden’s government’s ruling environment can be described as internal and external difficulties and accumulated disadvantages. Biden’s administration focused on sorting out the internal affairs, and launched a large-scale American rescue plan, American family plan and American employment plan, trying to alleviate the epidemic, revive the economy, bridge the differences between parties and ethnic conflicts, and lead the United States to "rebuild beauty." This series of measures need to consume a lot of political and material resources and overcome huge internal and external obstacles, and the implementation prospect is highly uncertain.
In this context, the Biden administration’s promises to return to and lead the alliance system are likely to be "lip service".
Second, the necessary condition for "America is back" is to assume that history can repeat itself, but the world is no longer that world.
The main routine of Biden’s administration is to instill an idea in its allies that although the world has changed a lot, the alliance system under the leadership of the United States can be repaired as before. However, the wheel of history is rolling forward, and the world pattern under the change of a hundred years has accelerated its evolution. The essence of the alliance system is the outdated cold war mentality, and the attempt to continue to dominate the world with the help of the alliance of a few countries is impossible.
Third, the solid guarantee of "America is back" is that allies are still firmly United around the United States, but in fact allies have doubts about the United States.
Trump’s destructive diplomatic style has caused cracks in the alliance system, and allies have lost their trust in the United States, and they have strengthened their strategic autonomy and found another way out. Although Biden’s government has vowed to return to the alliance system, the deep internal crisis and repeated policies every four years have made allies uneasy about Biden’s ruling prospects.
Merkel and Macron, the leaders of major allies, have expressed their reservations about American diplomacy and emphasized the strategic autonomy of Europe.
The broken mirror of reunion is a broken mirror after all, and the repair of trust cannot be done overnight. Biden’s imaginary circle of friends may still be there, but his allies have gradually drifted away.